Jots regairdin Independence
Feb 9, 2020 10:44:39 GMT
Post by CC on Feb 9, 2020 10:44:39 GMT
Indy Ref 2 may come next year but there are a lot of ifs and buts, Ts to be crossed, Is dotted and so on before that day dawns. The impatient are demanding a referendum this year and that the First Minister and her colleagues should risk being sent to prison for organising an unofficial one, and there has been some flouncing in the past week or so since she ruled that out, but another lost vote would pretty much end the debate for the foreseeable future so the movement needs to have a better than average chance of winning before putting the matter to the people again.
There are lots of hurdles to overcome first, not least of which is a campaign in the newspapers which will probably be even more strident than the one we saw during Brexit. Most of the right wing press are trying to find reasons to blame the SNP and the Scottish government for Derek Mackay's fall from grace so we can expect them to really go to town when Alex Salmond's trial begins next month. Whether he is found guilty of attempted rape or not there are going to be some unpleasant details coming out of Court and if there should be even a hint of a cover-up to protect him having taken place then there will, justifiably, be calls for heads to roll. It's likely to be a rocky road for the SNP leadership to negotiate.
Whether anyone would decide whether or not they support independence on the basis of politicians' sexual behaviour must be doubtful. I'd certainly like to think that the people of Scotland are not as dim as the Daily Mail and Sun expect everyone to be. Likewise, if corruption were to be found in the SNP that would cause some high level resignations but there's no sensible reason why it should kill off the entire independence movement. The Government and the movement are not the same thing. However, would it set us back? Well, aye; it would be overly optimistic to predict not. It would put us on the back foot and be a very bad set of circumstances in which to campaign.
I've seen it said that in 2014 over 70% of Scottish citizens born in the rest of the UK (overwhelmingly so in England) voted heavily against independence in 2014. Personal experience suggested that this claim was untrue, but an academic survey, the Scottish Referendum Study, asked a sample of 5000 voters and one of its conclusions is that it's an actual fact that English people in Scotland voted, by over two thirds, for the Union.
It's an interesting study in lots of ways. Some of its findings surprised me, and I have to admit I can't find many rational explanations for a lot of them.
These are the results:
ANNUAL INCOME
£0 – £19,999 AYE 53.2% NO 46.8%
£20k – £29,999 AYE 43.5% NO 56.5%
£30k – £44,999 AYE 49.8% NO 50.2%
£45K+ AYE 50.5% NO 49.5%
AGE
16-19 AYE 45.7% NO 54.3%
20- 24 AYE 45.9% NO 54.1%
25-29 AYE 62.2% NO 37.8%
30-39 AYE 55.2% NO 44.8%
40-49 AYE 52.9% NO 47.1%
50-59 AYE 47.7% NO 52.3%
60 -69 AYE 40.5% NO 59.5%
70+ AYE 32.9% NO 67.1%
EDUCATION
With degree AYE 48.3% NO 51.7%
No degree AYE 47.8% NO 52.2%
BIRTHPLACE
Scotland AYE 50.2% NO 49.8%
Other UK AYE 29.8% NO 70.1%
Elsewhere AYE 43.2% NO 56.8%
RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION
Protestant AYE 39.9% NO 61.1%
Catholic AYE 57.7% NO 42.3%
None AYE 52.1% NO 47.9%
Other AYE 52.5% NO 47.5%
GENDER
Male AYE 52.7% NO 47.8%
Female AYE 43.4% NO 56.6%
Based on those figures the target demographic group looks to be young and old Protestant English women with no degree and an income between £20k and £30k. It would take a better and more diligent student than me to discover why this should be so.
There are lots of hurdles to overcome first, not least of which is a campaign in the newspapers which will probably be even more strident than the one we saw during Brexit. Most of the right wing press are trying to find reasons to blame the SNP and the Scottish government for Derek Mackay's fall from grace so we can expect them to really go to town when Alex Salmond's trial begins next month. Whether he is found guilty of attempted rape or not there are going to be some unpleasant details coming out of Court and if there should be even a hint of a cover-up to protect him having taken place then there will, justifiably, be calls for heads to roll. It's likely to be a rocky road for the SNP leadership to negotiate.
Whether anyone would decide whether or not they support independence on the basis of politicians' sexual behaviour must be doubtful. I'd certainly like to think that the people of Scotland are not as dim as the Daily Mail and Sun expect everyone to be. Likewise, if corruption were to be found in the SNP that would cause some high level resignations but there's no sensible reason why it should kill off the entire independence movement. The Government and the movement are not the same thing. However, would it set us back? Well, aye; it would be overly optimistic to predict not. It would put us on the back foot and be a very bad set of circumstances in which to campaign.
I've seen it said that in 2014 over 70% of Scottish citizens born in the rest of the UK (overwhelmingly so in England) voted heavily against independence in 2014. Personal experience suggested that this claim was untrue, but an academic survey, the Scottish Referendum Study, asked a sample of 5000 voters and one of its conclusions is that it's an actual fact that English people in Scotland voted, by over two thirds, for the Union.
It's an interesting study in lots of ways. Some of its findings surprised me, and I have to admit I can't find many rational explanations for a lot of them.
These are the results:
ANNUAL INCOME
£0 – £19,999 AYE 53.2% NO 46.8%
£20k – £29,999 AYE 43.5% NO 56.5%
£30k – £44,999 AYE 49.8% NO 50.2%
£45K+ AYE 50.5% NO 49.5%
AGE
16-19 AYE 45.7% NO 54.3%
20- 24 AYE 45.9% NO 54.1%
25-29 AYE 62.2% NO 37.8%
30-39 AYE 55.2% NO 44.8%
40-49 AYE 52.9% NO 47.1%
50-59 AYE 47.7% NO 52.3%
60 -69 AYE 40.5% NO 59.5%
70+ AYE 32.9% NO 67.1%
EDUCATION
With degree AYE 48.3% NO 51.7%
No degree AYE 47.8% NO 52.2%
BIRTHPLACE
Scotland AYE 50.2% NO 49.8%
Other UK AYE 29.8% NO 70.1%
Elsewhere AYE 43.2% NO 56.8%
RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION
Protestant AYE 39.9% NO 61.1%
Catholic AYE 57.7% NO 42.3%
None AYE 52.1% NO 47.9%
Other AYE 52.5% NO 47.5%
GENDER
Male AYE 52.7% NO 47.8%
Female AYE 43.4% NO 56.6%
Based on those figures the target demographic group looks to be young and old Protestant English women with no degree and an income between £20k and £30k. It would take a better and more diligent student than me to discover why this should be so.